Empirical Study Of Sino-EU Trade Deficit

Since the first appearance Sino-EU trade deficit, Sino-EU bilateral trade balance has increasingly expanded, with the EU internal trade protectionism tendency strengthens in recent years. Along with EU replaces US to become the first big origin place of China trade surplus, after the question of Sino-US trade deficit, Sino-EU trade deficit is gradually becoming one of the hot issues of international trade research area.Then, which factors are related with the consistent expansion of Sino-EU trade deficit scale? What's the relationship among the long-term tendency and the short-term fluctuation of these factors and Sino-EU trade deficit? How will Sino-EU trade deficit change in the following years? How to recognize the present situation of Sino-EU trade deficit correctly? As well as which policy can be taken to reduce the scale of trade deficit in order to deal with the trade friction? These questions will urgently wait to study in the economic area.This paper uses a joint method Theoretic and Empirical Study, and research on the actuality, generating mechanism and the developing tendency of Sino-EU trade deficit, and put forward suggestions.The result of the Empirical Study indicates that he trade deficit has been significantly affected by international industry specialization and the high level of growth in the integration of trade in China. The RMB real effective exchange rate, however, is not the essential cause, which has increased trade deficit, while the domestic consuming demands have positive effects on the re-balance of bilateral trade.The result of the ARIMA model indicates that Sino-EU import and export as well as the trade deficit will keep increase respectively in the following five years. Finally, the paper puts forward the Macroscopic and microscopic suggestions in order to avoid the EU internal trade protectionism barrier, while relax Sino-EU bilateral trade deficit and realize maximization of trade benefit as well as the long-term stability development of bilateral economy and trade.