Study On Project Risk Assessment Theory And Its Application In Oil Pipeline

This paper applies project risk assessment theory to oil pipeline risk assessmentpractice. The development and current status of oil pipeline risk assessmenttechnology are generally introduced both at home and abroad. Especially, Kent indexassessment model is analyzed in detail, which nowadays is widely used in pipelinerisk assessment practices in China. Although the Kent model has many advantages,there are some shortcomings especially in weights for the first rank assessmentindexes. Inoriginalmodel,weightsofthefirstrankassessmentindexesaresetequally,which is not consistent with practical situation in China. Reliability engineeringtheory and statistic method are used to improve this shortcoming in this paper. Inordertomakethisimprovementmorefeasible,experts'opinionsshouldbeconsideredlater.In order to solve the problem that assessment results may be distorted by riskestimators'subjectivity, the grey evaluation model is used to assess project risk. Inthis paper, effect analysis on the two whiteness functions is conducted based oncomputer simulation, which are widely used in the grey evaluation model at present.The result shows there are drawbacks in both of them, which make the results of themodel incorrect. Thus, the paper proposes "three-step method" to set linear whitenessfunctions, and re-sets linear whiteness function. It is proved by computer simulationthat this improvement has made better effect. In further study, it is found thatevaluation effect of this model is relavant to power exponent of the whitenessfunction.Based on the study above, whiteness functions with different powerexponents are used when implementing grey evaluation model, which is called"improved grey risk evaluation model"in this paper. Finally, the paper demonstratesthe evaluation process of"improved grey risk evaluation model"through a case ofrisk assessment for gas pipeline, which shows improved model is more accurate andreliable.