The Application Of Combined Forecast In Budget Management Of Oil Industry

From the viewpoint of system theory, the forecast object may be a complex social or economic system which is composed of various related and interacting elements. Traditional individual forecast methods can only provide the effective information from one way. Combined forecast method is a kind of forecast method which combines each individual forecast method together, and makes use of the forecast information provided by each single forecast method, to get more precise forecast values.The dissertation studies on the principle and technique method of combined forecast, and its application in an oil company. Firstly, the dissertation introduces the combined forecast method. And then, on the basis of expatiating on a few individual forecast methods, it makes an intensive study of the classification of combined forecast methods and the often used linear and non-linear combination of the forecast methods. Secondly, taking the forecast of the key budget indicators'change trends for an example, the dissertation selects three individual forecast methods, which is the constant model for index smoothing forecasting method, the linear model for index smoothing forecasting method and the grey forecasting method, combines the three individual forecast methods together to build the final combined forecast model under the criteria of minimizing the error sum squares, to analyze the change trends of key budget indicators in the master budget management process, and displays various graphs of forecast analysis. Lastly, the dissertation directs against the current situation of master budget management of the oil company, make an intense discussion of the master budget management of the oil company, including the master forecast management system, master forecast management modeling case and the application of combined forecast technique in the modeling case. On this basis, the dissertation gives a brief induction of the master budget management analysis system, and carries out an objective outlook of its operating results.