The Cointegration Analysis On Exchange Rate And Income Of China Inbone Tourism

The fluctuation of exchange rates for RMB, as a weathervane of China's foreign exchange control and economic development, reflect the interactions of different ways of trade during the economic development.The RMB is generally on a stage of depreciation during the year 1978 to 1994.However, in 1994, with a sharp reduce, the official rate of exchange was made uniform with the market rate. Till the beginning of 1995, the RMB achieves some appreciations.After May of 1995, the RMB has been remained stable at any kind of crisis, and this superstability seems to continue concerning the current state. Perspective from the superstability of the RMB rate, we start to think what effects the superstable rate will make on Chinese tourist trade, and what the positive and negative effect will be the superstability have on China's inbound tourism; whether the continuing appreciation of the RMB will bring China's inbound tourism to a turning point sometime; what effects the trend of the RMB and future policies for exchange rate will have on the inbound tourism.We try to make some theoretical research and prove, in this thesis, on the practical effect that the fluctuation of exchange rate will have on the development of inbound tourism, through the relevant theories and the actual development status .The relation between the fluctuation of exchange rate and development of China's inbound tourism is discussed in the six parts of the thesis.The first part is mainly an introduction on the background, the reason and the importance of research. The framework and outline of this thesis are also well introduced in this part, based on the international researches of inbound tourism, the fluctuation of exchange rate and international trade.The second part mainly introduces the relevant theory and research methods. The third and fourth part, the key parts of this research, mainly discuss about the model designing and building. Firstly the relation between fluctuation of exchange rate and inbound tourism is orderly analyzed with qualitative theories. Then after studying the evidences of the exchange rate for the RMB and inbound tourism, measurement on the fluctuant cycle of the RMB exchange rate and the variation cycle of inbound tourism, and measurement on the effects produced are made. Further the turning point of the inbound tourism resulting from the fluctuation of exchange rate is found. Thereby the influence level of current fluctuant trend of exchange rate on China's inbound tourism is tested. The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestion for policies, in which relevant measures and policies against the appreciation of the RMB are presented. The last part states the limitation of the research and next objective of research on this subject.