Analysis On Influence Factors Of Domestic Styrene Price And Styrene Price Forecast

With the rapid development of domestic economy, petrochemical industry experiences great development and enter market system, which is a basic industry. Styrene is a kind of staple petrochemical product, and its backward products are applied widely in the field of rubber, plastic, automobile, electronic, electrical appliance, and construction. The market of styrene is more active than the rest of staple petrochemical product. Due to the fluctuation of styrene price in the market impact the backward industry obviously, a good method that can analyze and forecast styrene price is propitious to the development of backward enterprise and setup healthy styrene market. Based on the econometric theory, and by the use of multiple linear least-squares regression and the fixed effects model in panel data analysis, to analyze the influence factors on styrene price, the following is the conclusions : in the macro factors, oil processing and oil products manufacturing gross production value(OGV) explained the strongliest; in the apparent consumption of factors, styrene apparent consumption(SC) influence greater; in the forward and backward product price factors, the fluctuation on the price of polystyrene and benzene relate the fluctuation on the price of styrene strongliest. The fluctuation on the price of benzene impacts the styrene price in some time later, and the fluctuation in polystyrene price impacts styrene price instantly. For the aspect of price forecast, this paper simulate the historical time series data by establishing AR (1) models. Styrene right price data are fitted with a linear equation. According to the equation, this paper forecast the styrene price in the next period, compared with the actual value; there is only 2% error between the actual value and the predictive value.