Resourch On Lunar-Based Time Sequence Forecasting Model And Its Applications On Tabacco Sale Forecasting

Firstly,the paper introduces the development of Inner Mongolia Tobacco and the strategy requirements on resources organization according to customer's orders presented by China Tobacco Monopoly Bureau.And then the importance of sale forcasting is elaborated.Secondly, the advantages and disadvantages of qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods are analyzed.The forecasting method based on time sequence is selected in accordance with the characteristics of tobacco sales. According to the seasonal fluctuations in tobacco sales, the season exponential forecasting model is selected as basic forecasting model. After analysis of correlation in tobacco sales and lunar festivals, the lunar date is introduced into the season exponential forecasting model.Then the forecasting flowchart and implementation of season exponential forecasting model based on lunar date are presented.Thirdly,the paper elaborates function structure, programming environment, operating environment and data structure of the system. At the same time data acquisition and processing are also given.By comparing improved and unimproved forecasting result, the effect of improved forecasting model is verified..Finally,the paper summarizes advantage and disadvantage of the system and presents the further research directions.