The Research On Herding Behavior In Chinese Commodity Futures Market

In resent years, domestic and foreign scholars on the financial market Herding Behavior has been a hot issue, but the main focus in the stock market and funds, and the futures market on little. Particularly in China, the research on futures markets Herding Behavior is only according to the stock markets theory in the newspaper site on a brief introduction.Firstly, the paper overview the Herding Behavior of theoretical research and empirical research at home and abroad in system, and analysis the manifestations of the Herding Behavior of China's futures market investors. Secondly, on the basis of the first research, the paper survey the China's futures investors' investment behavior. According to the survey findings, there is obvious Herding Behavior in China's futures market.Further, the paper gives the empirical research on the Herding Behavior of soybean, soybean meal and corn of the China's commodity futures market. First, the paper gives the Granger causality test between the three varieties future price and the total number of open interest of the top 20 futures brokerage firms. Test between the existence of long-term stability and balanced relations, at the basis of the result, then this paper compare the changes of the market main positions with the changes of the net positions of the top 20 futures brokerage firms, observe the two whether changes with the convergence. The empirical results show that, China's soybean futures market does not exist Herding Behavior, but the soybean and corn futures market have Herding Behavior. In addition, this paper analyses the cause of Herding Behavior, and put forward suggestions and solutions to restrain Herding Behavior.At the end of the paper, we made an conclusion on this research, analyzed the existing deficiencies and gave some proposals on succeeding researches.