Research On Investment Decision-Making Of Operational Risk Project In The Chang Qing Oil And Gas Field That Based On The Value Of Real Options

For a long time, the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, or net present value (NPV) method to represent the traditional financial analysis methods has been taken by the major oil companies analysis tools. However, because these methods assumption is not consistent with the actual situation, there are some limitations, particularly on high input, high risks of oil and gas field projects, operating risks can not be correct valuation. Therefore, this paper, the Changqing oil and gas field operations risk of the actual, real options methods will be applied to the investment decision-making practice, and make up for the traditional methods of investment decision-making inadequate, the Changqing oil and gas fields on the risk of operating the project and the scientific evaluation made reasonable investment decision-making has important practical significance.In this paper, a detailed overview of real option theory and research literature, and real options with the traditional method compared with DCF , and so, based on the Changqing gas field project investment decision-making operations risk status quo of operations risk investment, introducing decision-making existing methods, pointing out that the existing methods of investment decision-making is not perfect and proposed the necessary of use of real options approach to investment decision-making . Changqing Petroleum Exploration of the oil and gas field operations risk the uncertainty of the project were analyzed, and it summed up its own non uncertain nature of the project development process from the identification and analysis of the value of the options, pointed out that the Real Option evaluation of the advantages. Finally to do the research on the risk of oil and gas field operations and project-related delays, expansion, contraction and conversion to a Real Option by fixed Price. Changqing oil and gas fields on the risk of operating the project decision-making methods of physical design options, and application method on the real options the Changqing oil and gas field operations risk projects empirical analysis.Research papers from the real options perspective oil and gas field operations risk investment project investment evaluation and scientific investment projects reflected the inherent value, Application of this method of decision-making can be effective in raising the risk of operating oil and gas field development projects of scientific management level.