BOT Project Financing Risk Evaluation Study

This paper summarizes the project finance theory and the situation of the research of BOT project financing,introduces the model of project financing,and also explains the operational procedures of the representative model BOT which includes:setting up a project,calling for a bid,pre-qualification,evaluation and decision of the bid,negotiations and approval,transfer and operation.This paper describes the possible risk in BOT project financing process,introduces the concept of risk and risk assessment,and then further analysis the BOT project financing risk characteristics.At the same time the risk of financing are classified by the two methods:Stage (construction phase,the operational phase,completion stage) and Controllability(political, economic,force majeure,operating maintenance,environmental risks).According to the identifiability principle,commeasurable principle and practicable principle of evaluation exercise of the project scenario,this paper designs BOT project financing risk index system.This paper also proposes the appraisal method,just as degree evaluate method in political risk evaluation,5C characteristic analysis in credit risk evaluation,according to the detailed index in risk evaluation. It also introduces the quantitative analysis method in project financing,as AHP,fussy analysis method and sensitive analysis.Finally,this paper carries on the appraisal using the quantitative analysis method to the Guiyang creek Sewage treatment plant financing risk.The methods used in this article contain:the literature methodology,the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive analytic method.The innovation point lies in using the analytic hierarchy process & the fuzzy synthesis analytic method to carry on the risk analysis and using the financial norm to carry on the efficient analysis,supplemented mutually,further enhancing the project financing risk analysis reliability.