Research On China's Export Fluctuation Rules

Research on China's export fluctuation rules has great importance from two aspects, one is it is conducive for Chinese economy to develop healthy and fast, the other is it is meaningful for China to further expand its export. Research method of this thesis is constructing Early Warning System of China's Export Fluctuation (EWSCEF) to study the periodic fluctuation of China's export. The meaning of EWSCEF is it is the first complete early warning system for China's export.Main contents of this thesis are as followings. First, economic periodic fluctuation theories and related thesis, early warning theories and related thesis are introduced. Second, indicators for EWSCEF are picked and classified. The method used here is a four-component system made up by macroeconomic, leading, coincident and lagging indicators is constructed first and then Hierarchical Cluster Analysis is used to verify the above four-component system. Third, Principal Component Analysis is used to extract macroeconomic, leading, coincident and lagging prosperity indexes. Fourth, control graph is applied to calculate control limits to define status areas and thus draft out prosperity trend graph and early warning signal lamp table accordingly. Finally, based on prosperity trend graph and early warning signal lamp table, China's export fluctuation rules and trade policies from 1990 to 2005 are reviewed. And forecasts of China's export fluctuation in 2006 and 2007 are made and policy suggestions are put forward accordingly. Innovative ideas in this thesis are as followings. First, when indicators system are constructed for EWSCEF, macroeconomic indicator is included and a four-component system is received, which is quite different from the three-component system of macroeconomic fluctuation early warning system.Second, when indicators are classified, a method of theoretical analysis and cluster verification is used, whose advantage is not only classifying indicator from the view of statistics, but also considering the economic meaning of each indicator. Third, control graph, which is a common method in engineering reliability and quality management, is applied to derive control limit to define status areas. Forth, when signal lamp table are drew, positive or negative signs are added to lamps in order to show whether prosperity is in an upward or downward trend. Fifth, in this thesis, cluster analysis, principal component analysis and control graph are combined together to construct EWSCEF.Main results of this thesis are as followings. First, EWSCEF composed by early warning signal lamp table and prosperity indexes trend graphs is constructed. Second, based on EWSCEF China's export fluctuation rules from 1990 to 2005 are reviewed.