An Empirical Research On The Efficiency Of The Macro-regulations In Real Estate In Recent Years In China

Since 1998, because of strong governmental encouragement and support, the real estate market has grown up tremendously and the housing price has attracted the most attentions all over China in 5 years time. Much of the Macro-regulations in this period were also aimed at the real estate. This thesis empirically analyzes the efficiency of the macro-regulations in real estate in recent years in China on the basis of the theoretical analysis.Firstly, in the literature reviews, numbers of research articles on real estate and macro-regulation are cited to narrow the range of the research through basic conceptions, to highlight the necessity of the macro-regulations in real estate through the market failure & government functions. Secondly, it explains the transmittal mechanism and the principles of the macro-regulations measures. Thirdly, it uses one of the multivariate analysis methods named canonical correlation analysis to analyze the efficiency of the macro-regulations between 1999 and 2006. Lastly, it indicates the effect of the macro-regulation policies.Two suitable sets of indicators were chosen for canonical correlation analysis(CCoA) using the quarterly data between 1999 and 2006, to weigh the effects of the policies on real estate. The analysis suggests that:①The real estate market is obviously affected by M2 , disposable income of the town resident and population of the town;②the actual completed investment of the real estate is correlated positively with the M2 and the bank lending, and③the index of the housing price is correlated positively with the index of the land price and it is negative correlation with the interest rate.Through the situation of the economy of the country and the state of the real estate market, the thesis points out the efficiency of the policies between 1999 and 2006 as follows:①The impact is not evident through the interest policy;②it can adjust the actual completed investment of the real estate by controlling the number of M2 ;③it can adjust the range of the increase of the actual completed investment of the real estate by controlling the bank lending, and④land policies can obviously effect the index of the housing price. Totally, the Macro-regulations in real estate in recent years in China are regulated, partly, and passive.The innovations are derived from the following:①Reasonable usage of canonical correlation, which is frequently used in medicine and biology into real estate market analysis;②trying to take most of the macro-regulations on real estate into one analyzing framework and evaluate their efficiency so as to explain the reality.