The Research On The Inverse J-curve Effect Of RMB Appreciation

Along with economic globalization tendency , the economy of China foreign trade for existence degrees enhances gradually, and the RMB revalues inevitably creates to our country economy affects greatly. This article is mainly to discuss RMB revaluation to our country export volume of trade influence, as well as forms from the inverse J curve effect, so that we can base the analysis on the research of the counter-J curve effect phenomenon and the RMB revaluation's reasons, also profits from Taiwan new Taiwan dollar and the Japanese Japanese's Yen large revaluation experience, to propose that strategies foe our country national condition. We hoped that the study have profound affection on our country exchange rate mechanism, the macroscopic management and to help the microscopic enterprises which have to face appreciation of RMB to take fitful measures.This article implements the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis completely, and take qualitative analysis primarily, quantitative analysis as auxiliary; the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis unify, in the article AS Marshall-Lenard condition to the J-curve effect explanation, we pointed out that the J curve effect likewise, the inverse J curve effect existence time lag, and mediates the contract currency theory through the remittance psychology to carry on the explanation to the inverse J-curve formation. On the empirical analysis aspect, we used the three year foreign trade data of China and the foreign exchange fluctuation, through a simple regression model, obtains the real diagnosis result that there is the inverse J-curve effect in our country RMB revaluation process. Through the domestic situation and the international situation compare, we proposed that profits from positive action of Japan to deal with a Japanese Yen revaluation. Considered the Chinese actual situation, we proposed the feasibility measure to the counter-J curve effect from the macroscopic management and the microscopic enterprise two aspects proposed that deals with the RMB revaluation.