Research On The Alertness-forecasting System Of The Non-life Insurance Companies' Risk

As the special financial companies dealing with risk, non-life companies not only undertake the risk of the insured with conversion, but also have the existence guard against and dissolve the risk of themselves. Non-life companies are confronting with many risks at any time, furthermore, they have much more difficulties in risk management than common companies. With the development of the financial integration, especially China acceding to WTO, non-life insurance companies in China will be confronted with severe circumstance in the course of revolution, which will bring about more and more risk.Alertness-forecasting is an important process during the risk management, it can be defined that according to the relative insurance statutes and principles, choosing some indexes that can reflect the evidence of non-life companies'risk in advance, establishing models, warning the supervision authorities and non-life insurance companies to pay attention to the deviation of companies earlier, so as to keep away the risks. So it is very necessary to construct the alertness-forecasting system of the non-life insurance companies'risk to control completely and systematically the risk in order to reduce the risk and avert the crisis.Firstly, the paper analyzes the type, the characteristic, the manifest and the reason of the non-life insurance companies'risk in its running. Secondly, based on the further analysis of the traditional alertness-forecasting methods, putting forward the methods used in the thesis combined by fuzzy mathematics theory and Back Propagation ANN technique, and analyzes the feasibility and advantages of the application into the construction of non-life insurance companies'risk alertness-forecasting system. Thirdly, applying the method combined quantitative with qualitative analysis, as well as analysis with positive study to establish a perfect alertness-forecasting system in order to control and manage the non-life insurance companies'risk. Finally, this paper makes a conclusion to this research.