Game Research On The Spillover Effect Of Chinese Export Caused By Direct Foreign Investment

Realty business is wrought up with our national economy gender adoption of the market principle reform。It possesses the property of strut and vitals。After 20 years developed, realty business has became the backbone industries of our national economy, but its development is not successful, instead it grown up in wave and sinuosity。Realty business has expand degree of association and strong force, therefore, it has large perniciousness of wave-oversize wave can crises the development of wholly national economy。The research of the relation of realty business and national economy is favor of holding the co-development law of realty business and national economy, possessing pioneer theory meaning。At the same time, inquisition of the wave law of realty business and regulation and control policy conduce to supervise realty business to develop healthy, possessing highly value of practice。This article leafs from the theory of economic cycle and the theory of realty cycle, inherit the conventional theory of realty cycle, critically; it founds a new quota system of realty business, recounts diffusion index of realty business, solves the relativity indices and degree of our realty business and national economy, namely the accident and crises of realty business versus national economy, as well, analyses the impact of macroeconomic to realty business。At the same time, it reveals the imaginal law of realty wave and national economy。Researches the realty policy of regulation and control, emphasely researches regulation and control policy of realty anti-wave, estabilishes the anti-wave population clue of realty regulation and control, founds realty wave cordon model, researches the application of the anti-wave police of Shanghai realty business, and make several policy advises。The first chapter introduces the background of this paper, the researching meaning, and the researching method.The second chapter made the overview of the theory of the tune development between realty business investment and macroeconomic, this chapter is also the theorecal basic of this paper. The first section introduces the main feature of the realty business: realty has poor consum substitutability, as merchandise; on the other hand, realty has poor market liquidity, poor price adjustment mechanism, so that people give evaluation to them hard. The second section introduce the represent of realty business in macroeconomic. owing to the mistake of market forecast and the lag of market regulatory, it has the realty cycle, and this paper point out precedence relationship of macroeconomic cycle and realty periodic. The third section introduces the research of quota system of our realty business. Our research on the quota system of realty business is not much. Some scholar support divide Chinese realty business cycle with the single indicate; other scholar support aggregative indicator to divide realty business. The fourth section introduces detail compatibility of realty business investment and macroeconomic. And the fifth section indicates the limitation of the co-operation research and the vice of quota system of realty business. Some scholastic researched majority attention realty business, but they left out account the impact of realty business on rest vocation. The health and the scale of one vocation, demand to consider the macroeconomic situation of correlation vacation, or else we will made the development of macroeconomic incline to one direction. And some research started from the angle of qualitative, with less quantitative analyses, but this could be able result the disengage between theory and actual.The third chapter embarks to proceeds empirical analysis the compatibility between realty business and macroeconomic of China. The first section gives an outline of the actuality and feacture of our national realty business. From 1985 we opened the realty market, we have already experienced four complete cycle, and now , we just get the outspread phase of the fifth cycle. The development of realty business is so quickly that the price of realty and the dimension of investment of realty are departure severitily from equilibrium level. The second section applies the Granger Cause Analysis to research interactional factor indices of our realty business and our national macroeconomic. In this section, we point out from which factors our the investment price of realty can impact macroeconomic, and which macroeconomic factor can impact the investment of realty. The third section creats three VAR models:①the model of realty business and macroeconomic;②the model of realty business and correlation upstream industrial;③the model of average of the realty business and average of macroeconomic. The fourth section uses the VAR models in the third section, and use impulse response function, and then researches the impact of each realty business indices on correlation macroeconomic index. The fifth section, on the basic of the VAR models of the third section, research the impact of realty business on upstream correlation industrial. The sixth section, applying the model in the third model, uses impulse response function to research the impact of national macroeconomic to our realty business.The fourth chapter, on the base of the analytic result of preamble, combining the history object lesson of realty conjunctural of other country in the world, supplies rational policy to our realty investment , as well as country macroscopic readjustment and control. For instance: realty business decide investment base on the situation of macroeconomic; government readjust and control the realty business investment by exchange rate.We get a very remarkable conclusion by the analysis of this paper, that is there is very notable co-ordination between investment of realty business of China and macroeconomics of China. So there is very positive value to plan and deploy the investment of realty business for macroeconomics developing stably.