Study On Engineering Insurance Rate Of RBF Networks

The economy of our country becomes more and more prosperous gradually since China had joined in the WTO. Meanwhile, our government invests lots of money for the basic facilities construction every year. In this situation, the engineering construction will face higher risk inevitably than before, so it's urgent that we should take advantage of the engineering insurance to transfer the engineering risk and provide economy guarantee for engineering construction. At abroad, implementing engineering construction project should be compelled, and generally foreign companies will execute the relevant laws in China; but in our nation, there are few companies are willing to obey these regulations. If it is pursued in this way, it can't contribute to a good developing situation to our nation's engineering construction.Not only that, the theory of engineering insurance and the practical implementation in our nation are more lagging than foreign country, especially in how to assure the engineering insurance rate. Because of lacking the study of theory of engineering risk, the rates are fixed generally, and can't reflect the real face of the risk, and because of the construction project's large scale, long period, no-repeating production and complexity, there are many uncertain factors during the project implementation procedures, so it has more risk than general production. Moreover, engineering program has intricate characteristics, although two projects which have the same structure types are different from each other. Because they are different in circumstance and implementing schemas and so on. Therefore, it determines that the engineering insurance rate should be made out according to the particular project because of the special characteristic of engineering risk.At present, people usually adopt the fixed rate table to determinate engineering insurance rate. Somebody put out a method that by adjusting the risk coefficients and adopting the method of FCE to make sure engineering insurance rate, which is relied on the expert experiences. In this situation, it lacks the analysis of risk and is judged subjectively. Compared with this state, this paper put out a method that collated the engineering insurance rate based on the RBF neural-networks. This method combined the ANN and engineering risk management and insurance theory with practice to provide a reference for collating engineering insurance rate.First, the thesis told us the significance of study's background and the present conditions in home and foreign, and the main content and method of this paper. Second, the paper told us some basic risk theory and relationship between engineering insurance (ES) and engineering risk(ER). On this basis, the paper put out the method how to collate the engineering insurance rate(ESR): according to Reference method, Probable maximum loss, and principle of collating the ESR, we know that it's determined by the historical loss rate(pure rate). If we know the old loss rate we can inferred the future engineering pure rate. So we can take advantage of the neural-networks forecasting function to discuss our question how to calculate the ESR. Third, we can adopt it to recognize the ESR, and build an evaluating system of ESR, we can also get the risk value according to analyzing its quota. Forth, the thesis explains the BP networks and RBF networks of ANN simply, and establish a model of ESR based on the two neural-networks. It trained the network according to the collecting data, and acquired a stable trained result. By comparing with the two models, we know that the model of RBF networks is more suitable for collating the ESR. At last, it uses the practical project to test and verify the availability of this method the paper put out.But, because of the time and ability's limitation, it is hard to avoid some error, I hope sincerely that you can correct it in time.