The Research Of Outstanding Claims Reserve Estimation Method

After our country joins the WTO, the insurance management integrated to internationalize great environment, the competition in insurance industry is more and more vigorous. Outstanding loss reserve is one of the most important liabilities items of the non-life insurance company. For the property and casualty companies sufficient loss reserving is an important approach to keep the company in enough business solvency, and is also a significant aspect of checking corporate profits. The observable aggregate claims can form an upper left comer triangle, i.e. run-off triangle.Our aim is predict the lower right comer triangle, i.e. non-observable claims.In this paper, the author developments the Ioannis Ntzoufras and Petros Dellaportas's model from the aspect of robust estimation. In a situation that the priori information is insufficient, Marxism entropy theory and BMOM method are discussed, Hierarchial Bayesian and Marxism entropy priori distribution are used. It raises the robust of the estimate of model parameter, and makes the model have stronger using. Finally, theauthor simulates with real data of insurance company, and concludes with a summary.