The Reliability Of Experts' Judgment Model To AHP And Its Application In Project Decision-making

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is invented by the famous American operational researcher---Professor Saaty, which was widely used in many various complicated social problems such as the distribution of resource, making of development plan and analysis of the influence of policy and so on. The principle is to decompose a complicated problem into a hiberarchy which is composed of the general aim tier, guide line tier and stage-manage tier and plan tier, then ask experts to make intercomparsion between elements which belong to different tiers and make up the matrix of judgment of intercomparsion. At last, according the matrix, work out weight of compositor of tiers and the compound weight of every element comparing the system aims to realize the compositer of estimate plan.In the AHP, the judgment matrix in making-reaction hiberarchy of every element's relative importance is a key tache of the application of AHP. Since people's knowledge, learning ability, energy and so on are limited and the problems need to be solved in real world are too complex to be solved by one person, it is very hard for a person to make a right analysis and a satisfied decision to the ever-changing things by his own wisdom and experience. By using AHP to making decision, many experts are involved to join in estimate to make a group judgment for improving the accuracy and reliability. But because different expert has different learning structure, wisdom and experience, they will gain different information, so they have different understanding in judgment and show different preference. It has been paying a long time attention and research to how to get a way to solve the problem based on the expert's initial information on the judgment matrix. At the same time, the reliability of the initial information has become hotspot-----which expert we should trust on earth? Which part of the expert's information is valuable? The reliability of the expert's judgment becomes very important.In the process of group judgment, the reliability of an expert's judgment is directly related to the making of weight in the group, which is the key point of the combination of experts'information. So, the measure of the expert's reliability is the technical key in the group judgment. After making sure the reliability and accuracy of expert's judgment, the final result of judgment has practical meaning and value.But in the process of analysis hierarchy, the present method to work out the expert's reliability is far to perfect, not only in the practical range but in the working difficulty are not applied well in the complex system problem. In AHP, the complex relations between tiers are considered as a complex system. The correct idea to learn the complex system is that experts are allowed to make judgment by their own experience, knowledge and instinct, and then combine these experiences, knowledge with computer's hardware and internet to make a man-computer cooperation pattern to deal with complex system problem.People's cognition is limited. In the present social life, facing many complicated judgment problem, it is even hard for a decision-maker to select one good from many plans. So it is necessary to collect a group people's wisdom to make decision. During the judgment, different expert has different learning structure, wisdom and experience, they will gain different information, so they have different understanding in judgment and show different preference. It has been paying a long time attention and research to how to get a way to solve the problem based on the expert's initial information on the judgment matrix. People concern and research how to gain a decision. And how to make good use of the expert's estimate to plan and show their different estimate which a problem must be considered when use AHP and also a problem this essay is to solve.This essay presents the view the experts'judgment can be different from the fact which is not fully realized by people. There are two embodiments of the differences. One is embodied in present scale of the conformation of AHP and another is embodied in people's subjective judgment. The present AHP scale system of expert judgment exist problems such as scale cursory and mistiness of meaning, according to which these experts are difficult to make a judgment matrix to reflect the object problems. Based on this reason, the essay make up a new system of scale based on the rate of preference according to avail principle and people'different preference to difference elements. This system considered the uncertain of people's subjective judgment. And it is more practically meaningful that the rate of preference replaces the present scale's way of comparision. Experts can learn the meaning of scale more easily, and it is convenient to use. So experts can make the judgment more correctly on the practical problems. Under this system, when the experts make judgment, they may be influenced by surroundings, knowledge, experience and instinct and then an uncertain is created. To the uncertain, this essay presents a new way to make a pattern of expert's reliability. By using this way, we can get the expert's reliability and use it to deal with the expert's initial judgment matrix, which can embody the expert's learning of the objective fact. And the new way simplifies the present method to work out the reliability of expert's judgment greatly. It suits for the complex, blurry, incomplete, uncertain and unexisted-way tiers'relation. So, this way is scientific and reasonable in theory.At last, this essay illustrate the AHP new way of making up a expert's judgment reliability pattern and research of the way in preference of program assessing bids by giving an example of a background of five bidders'bid on water and electricity project. Through detailed analysis and account, the advantage and disadvantage gradation of the five bidders'bid is worked out. Through the application research of the case, show that the way of making up of the AHP expert's judgment has superior practicability and the process of calculation is simpler than any other ways to work out the reliability of expert's judgment.