The Research On Financial Risk Pre-Warning System Of Our Chinese Commercial Banks

Finance is a very important factor to the stabilization and safety of a country's economy, and banks are important to a country's finance. Financial crises broken in 90th of 20 century, especially the crises of Asia in 1997, arouse people's thinking and researches about this problem again. One important reason of the financial risk is the risk of banking, so in order to prevent financial crises, it is very important to construct a financial risk pre-warnings system of commercial banks as soon as possible.Firstly, the paper analyzes the type, characteristic, manifest and the reason of the commercial bank's risk in its running, and then analyzes the composing of the pre-warning system of commercial banks .Then the author discusses the traditional methods and models scholars have used in the pre-warning system.Secondly, based upon our country's situation, the author analyzes the problems we should pay attention to when construct the pre-warning system. In view to this reason, the author establishes a comprehensive indicator system and put forwards the methods used in the thesis. Combined by fuzzy mathematics theory and Back Propagation Neural Networks technique, and analyzes the feasibility and advantages of the application of this method into the construction of commercial banks pre-warning system. Then apply the method in a case and find it a perfect method. This part manifests the writer's innovation.Finally, the writer makes a conclusion and a prospect to this research.