Research On Construction Of Forecasting Model For Financial Crisis Of Chemical Listed Company

There is a lifecycle in any enterprise,since born it faces the death,and competition seems to aggravate this course day by day in modern society. Research on financial distress prediction is one of the most important research subjects. It has not only high academic value but also enormous practical value. It is more important to build up models for financial distress pre-warning by the public financial statement of chemical listed companies. Based on the data acquired from chemical listed corporations. so the capability of the company to resist the crisis can thus be greatly improved, and this has great importance not only to promotion of the companies' vitality but to improvement of the entire economic environment of the society.This thesis is focused on early-warning modle of financial crisis in the chemical Limited company. Firstly, This thesis introduce the research background and role of the early-warning of fmanacial crisis, describes the current research situation. Secondly, indroduce the basic thoeries and methods of the early-warning of financial crisis, then make a practical ananlysis on samples. financial indexes system is constructed on the basis of open-disclosed annual statements and give explaination on the calculation of indexes, present my own ideas and methods in empirical study. From the angle of the empirical research, domestic researchers generally regard Special Treatment (ST) as the sign of the financial crisis. This train of thought has been drawn from the studies that defines the financial Crisis to be bankrupt, simplify the intension of the financial Crisis. financial Crisis has accumulated character. ST means that the financial distress of the enterprise reaches a certain serious degree, but non-ST enterprise faces the financial distress in varying degrees in fact. So apply Cluster analysis method, the samples is divided into sane enterprise, slight distress enterprises and serious distress enterprise to examine discrimination in three categorized in being overall. For this reason, using single year financial index and the average index of 4 years, combined with the corresponding sample data to set up different fisher classify models in two categorized, confirm the best combination of index and data by the classified result of the models, then establishes model for the empirical study on early-warning of financial crisis by the use of factor analysis method together with the Discriminant analysis method, make the test and annlysis of the results of established model. The forecasting model of financial crisis indicates that the established model can finely forecast to take place the possibility of financial crisis.Finally, this thesis summaries the empirical result. the use of Factor analysis method together with the Discriminant analysis method, Cluster analysis method can build up modle which have satisfactory predicting accuracy. Distinguishing generally Non-ST Corporation into the financial security company's division method is not sufficient precise. we find the financial indexs reflecting profit ability, growth ability, solvency have high forecast values, bring up some limitation and expanding direction of this research.