The Investment Decision-making Study Of Real Estate Development Based On Real Options

The investment process of real estate item is a certain process of real estate investment and decision through indicate unknown supply and need. Therefore, the investment of real estate is a kind of risk investment. The investment of real estate has great capacity, the development period is long and so on, this cause high risk of real estate investment. Facing increasing vigorous real estate market, the key problem is how to carry on investment decision, evade risk and avoid the huge economy lose.Real options is a kind of new method, it broadly applied in investment decision, finance management etc. It has big necessity and good application in real estate investment. But in recent years, domestic and international scholars value the item of real estate by Black-Scholes model, these methods have great random and neglect the characteristics of real options. Using B-S model to carry on the item of real estate, we may get a false conclusion.This thesis discusses a model for real options in real estate development investment decision-marking based on artificial neural network. The result indicates this method not only can avoid the influence of subjective factors, but also can raise the accuracy of investment in real estate development investment decision-making.This thesis has the following main aspects:(1) Assessment for the investment decision of real estate status ;(2) The investment decision-making model of real estate development based on real options;(3) The investment decision-making study of real estate development based on real options model.The mean of this thesis is: the application of real options in real estate can improve the shortage of traditional methods. It can help the governor program and manage the strategy investment.Finally, the thesis illuminates the main research work, points out some issues that investors in real estate needs to pay attention to in the future.