Research On The Measurement Of Morbidity And The Loss Distribution Of Health Insurance

In other countries, commercial health insurance actuarial study has been relatively mature. Pricing and risk control has been used relatively sophisticated model. In China, Commercial health insurance development in the early 1980s , After over 20 years of development, the size,quality and level of the health insurance industry, have greatly improved。The theory calls for the improvement of business development, the health insurance actuarial requirements as well。Currently, the supply and demand have been good for Commercial health insurance, but Business is not satisfactory , health insurance actuarial study is undoubtedly important .The Loss of health insurance is health insurance actuarial basis, we should be more attention . This paper studies a number of issues: Morbidity,Sick frequency,Loss Distribution are important indicator to measure the loss of health insurance.Loss on health insurance has important practical and theoretical significance. Loss of health insurance is the basis of pricing, Plays a decisive role in the rational pricing, and also is the basis of the reserve. To carry out effective monitoring of health insurance, loss of health insurance must be studied.Thesis is divided into four chapters, the main content and viewpoint as follows:First, Preface. In the preface, I introduce the background,content and meaning about the research. Then, I give a Literature Review.Capter1 is about morbidity and measurement.In this chapter, I first introduce the concept of the morbidity; including initial incidence rate,central incidence rate,point prevalence rate,period prevalence,cumulative prevalence rate, etc.Subsequently, the authors discuss how to show the morbidity. Multi-state increment-decrement table can be used to describe morbidity model, and MARKOV chain can describe the Probability transferred between different states, so I use MARKOV chain to describe morbidity. First I derive the expression of the initial incidence rate, Then, Respectively derive the expression of the central incidence rate and point prevalence rate.Sick frequency is another important indicator of the loss of health insurance. In this paper, I introduce the distribution and application of sick frequency including the binomial distribution, Poisson distribution, Negative binomial distribution,β- Negative binomial distribution, Poisson - Poisson distribution, Poisson- binomial distribution, Mixed Poisson distribution .In these distributions, the binomial distribution, Poisson distribution, Negative binomial distribution are used most and the results can often be satisfactory.Once we know the distribution of sick frequency, we can know the all available statistical information about the random variable, including expectation and variance. In insurance practice, sometimes getting the distribution of sick frequency is difficult, let alone seeking its expectation and variance. To address this issue, this paper gives the way for seeking the expectation and variance of sick frequency.Chapter2 is about the loss distribution and fitting.The loss distribution is another important indicator of health insurance. This paper introduces several commonly used loss distribution in the definition and nature including Gamma Distribution ,log- Gamma Distribution,log-normal distribution, Weibull distribution, Pareto distribution etc.After introducing several distributions, I research the fitting question for the loss distribution on health insurance. In other words, for given data, how to determine what is the distribution, and how to estimate the parameters .This paper gives two ways for fitting--Experience residual expectations function method and Superimposing Distribution Model.Chapter 3 is Morbidity table and structure.In this chapter, Firstly, the definition of diseases is given. Then, I focus on the structure of the morbidity table. To structure morbidity table, the following steps must be included.First, Data collection, in this paper, the principle of data collection is given, and gives advice about how to collect the date of insurance industry. Secondly, Risk classification. This paper describes why and how to classify the risk.Third, the measurement of morbidity, In This paper, I introduced the calculation methods for morbidity under different circumstance.Forth, adjust morbidity.3,Contribution and characteristics of this paperFirst, in this paper, health insurance loss is researched system. Health insurance loss is the basis of health insurance actuarial, but the study about those is few. I Analysis the various factors affecting health insurance loss, point out different indicators about health insurance loss.Second, in this paper, I focus on the combination of theory and practice.Third, in this paper, the writer study health insurance from different angles.Forth, while measuring morbidity, the writer uses MARKOV chain.