Modern Payment System Risk Dimensional Analysis In China

Modern payment system is a national financial infrastructure and the financial system an important component of its security, stable and efficient operation of the financial system is stable and normal operation of the socio-economic infrastructure, relates to the state's financial security and socio-economic stability. Of the 16th CPC Central Committee and the "national economy and social development 11 program for five years" has clearly made perfect payment clearing, improve settlement efficiency requirements. Our modern system of payment of the basic system of statements began late, in practice there are still a lot of problems, to be studied. In varying degrees abroad to study and practice paid risk warning system and domestic research also limited to payment system theory and framework for the study of the system of payment risk monitoring rarely studied. Economic and social reality urgently requires the establishment of a modern payment system risk monitoring, identification and measurement system Real-time monitoring of capital flows grasp economic trends, early warning of modern payment systems risk payment systems to enhance the safety, improve settlement efficiency, China's "11th Five-Year" plan on payment system, improving the system of payment clearing and enhance settlement efficiency. Based on this, this paper to pay our modern risk measurement studies as a master's thesis topic.In this paper, the main framework is broadly divided into three parts.The first part includes the first chapter and Chapter II, The main content of this paper is the purpose and significance of modern payment systems research and literature on modern payment systems and payment Wind risks outlined. China's first modern payment system, the problems it faces, and demanded a detailed, this paper then describes the practical significance. Second, the modern domestic and international payment systems risk of a brief overview, that the country's existing research limitations - lack of monitoring modern payment system risk indicators and the lack of payment risks Empirical Study , and its reasons for doing a simple analysis. In the second chapter defines modern payment systems and payment risks to our modern payment systems have made a preliminary classification, Modern also paid risk classification, expounding China's modern payment system, the causes of various types of risk.The second part includes the third chapter to the fifth chapter. Main contents of the construction of a modern payment system risk indicators and measurement system Modern Payment System Risk of probability. In the third chapter, the first is described and summarized in foreign risk warning system indicator framework, Building on current domestic and foreign research results, based on China's Modern Payment System Risk Index System Construction, From the macro and micro level to construct our modern payment system risk index system. We build a modern payments system risk indicators included five main areas : Liquidity Credit Exchange and financial debt, a total of 17 indicators. In view of the lack of access to modern payment systems in banks integrity of the data information This paper does not build profitability and management elements of the indicators. Construction of the system of indicators, based on actual data use AHP. Overall Description affect our risk participants pay the risk of macroeconomic trends, the study found that the macro factors.China's modern payment system risk in effect gradually decreased. In the fourth chapter, according to the third chapter of the Construction Specifications system to the modern payment system risk measurement. Using factor analysis to identify data and information to reflect the factor, the factor scores Logistic regression analysis to explore impact of our modern payment system risks. Logistic model to test the reliability, Logistic models of the results and Fisher Linear Discriminant Analysis Model comparison, Verification model accuracy. R Indicator System egression analysis showed : macro aspects of the payment system risk remains great, macro aspects of the foreign exchange risk is the risk of external debt and the issuance of currency incremental three factors; At the micro level, Modern pay for the big risk is liquidity risk. In the fourth chapter, in addition to measurement showed ICBC and the Agricultural Bank, My other five commercial bank payment risks the possibility of gradually decreasing.Chapter five of the policy recommendations. This part of the basis of the preceding analysis, as a safeguard against China's payment system participants of payment risks, guarantee our modern and efficient payment systems, stability, security, operation and come up with specific measures and countermeasures. Finally, after the study envisaged with a view to a more practical significance of the findings.The paper is the following :(1)Construction of China's first modern payment system risk index system use of indicators to describe our modern payment system, the macro aspects of the payment system, reflect the bank for the payment of various risk factors affect the general trend.(2)the use AHP light of the actual data, Analysis of our modern payment risks to the macro level and micro-level risks, and risks to make the macro level graphics.(3) use of factor analysis to choose the most of the information contained factor, reduce the number of model variables, In total contribution rate of more than 90%, under the premise of extracting major factor; and the use of the principal component scores as a factor in all models selected variables, such ensures that the reduced dimension purpose also reached a wide coverage of information, not to make the model lost the ability to explain, and the use of factor scores for the initial classification of discrimination. Also, the logistic regression model, there exists multi-collinearity problems. (4) Logistic regression model was introduced to practical applications, Analysis of modern payment system participants of payment risks, use commercial banks of the annual statistical data metrics all commercial bank to pay the probability of risk, to use the data analysis for the payment participants pay risk monitoring and preventing payment systems have to pay risk.(5) using linear discriminant Fisher Model and Logistic regression model results do comparative analysis The results showed Logistic regression model with the Fisher Linear Discriminant model higher than the rate of accurate discriminant . Hopwood help thinking, and build overall relative cost formula to measure the relative selection of a lower cost model to reduce the risk of misjudgment of costs paid. From the model of correct classification rate perspective, logistic regression model with a relatively higher rate of correct classification; From payment risks misjudgment cost, Fisher Linear Discriminant model of a lower payment risks misjudgment cost.In this paper, the problems is insufficient data exist to insurmountable problems, mainly commercial banks statistical caliber is not entirely uniform and the use of this data in a comprehensive processing, it is difficult to avoid the flaws. Secondly, foreign risk for the payment of the Empirical Analysis of the lack of literature, the existing empirical literature methods exist deficiencies.In future research may try to use neural networks, Panel Data pressure testing and analysis of modern payment system participants of payment risks. Based on the study of payment risks, because of the closure, it is difficult to find empirical analysis abroad, This domestic and Empirical Analysis of the Literature less, look to the future use of different model analysis of modern payment systems, may be a more accurate measure of our risk model to pay for the application to practice in the operation. In future research should focus on the collection of data for future research. The other is the accumulation of literature, particularly for the payment of foreign risks Empirical Analysis literature, to be updated analysis methods. In addition, the follow-up study could also examine the feasibility of a modern payment system and monetary policies of the relationship between for the formulation of monetary policy to provide the empirical data analysis concluded.