Research Of Real Estate Finance Early Warning System Model

The real estate finance is the fast developing with the development of real estate. The overheated development of the real estate of our country has aroused the attention from different fields in recent years, intimidate the crisis of the real estate and cause the crisis of the bank, make the stability of the financial system destroyed greatly. The research purpose of this paper refers to on the basis of studying the financial market of the real estate and operating the law , predict prewarning to the state of development of financial market of the real estate, and make correct prediction and appraisal to its tendency in the future, thus take and supervise the regulation and control measure ahead of time as much as possible , promote the running well continuously of trade economy to the maximum extent, try our best to avoid the emergence of those bad situation or incident that can prevent from at the same time.And the running situation that the fund operate is set about at each stages in the procedure from the market of real estate of our country of the paper, on the basis of analysing the real estate and financial circles interaction mechanism, analysing the financial market of the real estate operates the internal and external influence factors, use the systematic dynamics principle to set up the early warning model of the finance of real estate. Then take Nanjing city as an example , confirm the basic parameter of the model , has set up the early warning model of the finance of real estate of Nanjing, use Vensim PLE plus 32 system dynamic simulation software of Ventana System Company (4.2a edition ), carry on real example simulation to the development of financial market of real estate from 1997 to 2012 of Nanjing, analyse the simulation result of the major indicator, carry on the market and monitor prewarning. At the same time through policy experiment, the supplementary measures of offering the suggestion of perfecting financial policy of the real estate and perfection financial policies and regulations of real estate.Applying systematic dynamics principle to copies of real estate finance early warning system model offer a kind of method nature tool for studying the finance prewarning of the real estate, and analyse through the real example that proves its validity, explore a new road for research and perfection of " early warning theory of the finance of the real estate ".