An Empirical Study On Anticipation Of Stock Price And Financial Risk

All the time, numerous scholars have promoted the research around the relation between the financial data and quotations on the stock market. The change of the stock market is difficult to examine, at present, a lot of situations have changed. Under this situation, how to guide equity investment and carry on financial risk warning through analyzing financial index become the question urgently to be studied at present.This text exactly proceeds from the above questions; choose the financial data of 180 listed companies of Shanghai Stock Exchange and average annual stock 2000 to 2004 as the sample. This text is divided into two parts; first part is the relation between stock price and financial index. It is the dependent analysis of the individual index at first, get the earning per share (EPS), capital common accumulating, retained earning, return on net assets, total assets increasing rate, cash flow per share have the strongest relation with stock price. The article expands the studied time range further; analyze the development trend of above-mentioned financial indexes from 1998 to the present. At last, analyze all the indexes, get annual formula of the stock price. This has explained influences of the financial index to stock price and their development trend. The second part of thesis is to utilize the financial index to warning financial risk. We choose the financial index of the first part and choose the company of ST plate which are especially dealt with in 2004 and 2005 as analyzing samples; adopt the factorial analysis to draw the main composition contribution rate and loaded matrix of the factor. Through proving, choosing these financial indexes to warning financial risk is very effective.Through the research of the above two parts, have already analyzed the questions that urgently to be studied between the stock market and financial index of the listed company and have received the corresponding real example result. This has certain reference value in instructing invest and making investment decision system. The one that need to point out is that because of constant development of market, the understanding of"relation"should be revised constantly following the guidelines of the market.