| The purpose that the social produces is the material culture which increases increasingly for the sake of the contented people's crowd demand, so the problem of consume is placed in the whole national economy to close the most important position. Found a nation, reforming to open especially over more than 20 years, the town residents' living level of Guangdong had a significant exaltation, people's crowd's demand to life no longer limited at to eat only satisfied wear warm, and be developing toward the higher level, the consumption hobby of different stratums and different consumers also express more and more difference. This kind of variety which consumes realm makes us discover the growth of only consumer goods total amount isn't enough, we have to take into from the structure excellent turn, then can be real to satisfy people's various consumption needs. This literary uses Linear Expenditure System to research the amount relation of structure to carry on analysis Guangdong residents, consuming tendency, income flexibility, price flexibility etc. Then carry on the comparison of static state and dynamic state, give the possible problems of custom structure. This literary uses the double exponential smoothing to do an estimate to residents' various future consumption support, and carry on analysis as a result to the estimate, put forward the suggestion of rationalization on this foundation. Pass an above-mentioned research, be advantageous to promoting province economy in Guangdong moderate, fast development, be advantageous to speed industrial structure adjust, put forth effort implantation to pay pillar industry lately, aggressive development the third industry and be advantageous to the consumption policy which draws up science, carry on to the residents right leading, initiate consumption civilization, Be thus build up matching this province to be advantageous to social civilization, spiritual civilization and ecosystem civilization of reasonable of consumption structure... |
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