Research Of The Influence Of Central Bank Learning On Monetary Policy Operation Choice

In this dissertation we analyze the problem of the influence of central bank learning on monetary policy operation choice. In the first, this dissertation introduces the concept of "learning", which is popular in the field of western economics, and analyzes the origin of the concept, as well as the central learning approach. Then, we mainly review the researchful fruit in central bank learning and monetary policy.We add the factor of "learning" to the standard analysis framework of macroeconomics, and detailedly analyze the problem of central bank learning and monetary policy operation choice from the angle of theory and model. The academic analysis shows that rule is superior to discretion in the condition of complete information, but in the condition of incomplete information, central bank can't accurately learn the rule of private sector's expectation formation, etc., monetary policy operation choice becomes complex. Through the methods of mathematical economics, we find that in the condition of complete information, when central bank chooses rule's monetary policy, its welfare loss will less than it chooses discretion's monetary policy. However, in the condition of incomplete information, we can get a threshold vale, if the inflation rate exceeds this threshold, rule will be superior to discretion, and if the inflation rate is less than this threshold, discretion will be superior to rule.