The Econometric Analyses Of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Based On VAR Model

The monetary policy is the essential part of macro economical policy. It is more important in the development of national economical. Can monetary policy influence the real output? If can, how? This is the question that must be answered by researchers who work on monetary policy transmission mechanism. With the vicissitude of our country's economy system, the deepening of financial reform and the transition of macro economical, it has realistic meaning for both monetary policy conduct and stable development of the economy.The paper analyzes the monetary policy transmission mechanism of qualitatively and quantitatively on the basis of existing document. Firstly,the history and intrinsic integrant part of monetary policy transmission mechanism are qualitatively analyzed. And then, monetary policy transmission mechanism which is divided into internal transmission mechanism and external transmission mechanism is econometrically analyzed.The paper establishes a VAR model of internal transmission mechanism including reserve requirements,lending,foreign exchange,7 days of national inter bank interest rate and so on. It shows that in long term reserve requirements has the most influent to base monetary, the second is lending, the third is foreign exchange, 7 days of national inter bank interest rate has the least influent to base monetary. On the control of the monetary, in short, we should pay more attention on M1, on the long-term; we should pay more attention on M2.In the same time, the paper also establishes a VAR model of external monetary policy transmission mechanism, it analyzes the relationship between money supply,price and output. The result shows that M2 produces more influence to price and out put than M1, and also more stable. At last the paper puts forward suggestions to consummate the monetary policy transmission mechanism of our country.