| The Oriental Home decoration building materials center (abbreviation is Oriental Home) is established by Oriental Group which comprehensively introduce American THEHOME DEPOT management idea and pattern to be a national chain-like large-scale warehouse supermarket. It is the only national chain supermarket integrated with building materials, home depot ,furniture and home decoration. The Oriental Home (Chang Chun) is the 7th store which opened on April28, 2005 officially, it is the first warehouse type building materials, home depot chain supermarket in Jilin Province.The forecast research of customer flow capacity is vital significant to large-scale market , shopping center, airport, station, exhibition hall , museum and so on industries which relied on to the customer flow capacity . As far as retail is concerned, the customer is cash carrier as well as ty latent buyer. The rule research of customer flow capacity may increase the sales opportunity, transform the viewer into the buyer, maximum the market potential sales, and increase profit. At the meanwhile, it can provides essential theory basis to the market management decision-making.We established the customers flow capacity forecast model of Oriental Home (Chang Chun) through time series analysis B– J method according to data provided by security department of Oriental Home (Chang Chun) from September 18, 2005 to September 30, 2006 .The time series analysis is one kind of statistical method which promulgates the system dynamic structure and the rule by dynamic data , its basic thought is establish mathematical model which can quite accurately reflect dynamic dependent relationship in the time series according to system observe data during limit time , and it can forecast and control the future system behavior .B - J method or ARMA method is a set of method about time series analysis, forecast and control which proposed by American statistician Geogre.E.Box and British statistician Jenkins. So it is called Box-Jenkins method, abbreviation is B - J method. B - the J method is one steady succession linear model method, its core is Auto-Regressive Moving Average Model with abbreviation ARMA model), it is one kind of quite precise time series forecast method.Establishment of forecast model by B - the J method mainly divides into three stages: First stage, model recognition: definite model type through data relevant analysis .The second stage, estimate the model parameter, along with fixed step criterion to carry on the diagnostic check to the model usability. The third stage, forecast by using the model.Using B - J method and according to customer flow capacity from September 18, 2005 to June 23, 2006 we got forecast model of Oriental Home (Chang Chun) is ARMA (2, 2) through model recognition, parameter estimate and model step fixation . That is X t = 0.59 X t ?1 ? 0.2 X t ? 2 + at ? 0.52 at ?1 + 0.77at?2Using the established forecast model, we have carried on the forecast of customer flow capacity from June 24, 2006 to September 30, and compared with the actual customer flow capacity , then calculate the forecast relative error.From the result we can see that the effect of the model forecast is quite good, and it has use value .Using the established forecast mode by time series analysis B - J method, we made discussion and the attempt on forecast of market customer flow capacity. It provides one scientific and effective forecast research technique for the market in customer flow capacityMoreover, the research method and the establishment model may applied and promoted to the forecast research on customer flow capacity of exhibition hall, museum and so on public place. |
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