Study On Influence Factors Of Electricity Power Consumption And The Cointegration Model

Firstly, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model is used to forecast the short-term electricity demand. Then, electricity power consumption is chosen as the explained variable. Fixed asset investment, disposal income per capita, export, and electricity power price are chosen as explanatory variables, twenty-five years (from 1980 to 2004) real data of electricity consumption (influence of price level is deducted) in China are taken as samples. Based on the unit root test for these variables, the cointegration model is put forward to analyze the cointegration relationship between the explained variable and explanatory variables. The model not only represents the equilibrium relation between electricity consumption and its main influence factors, but also can forecast the long-term electricity power demand. Owing to the existence of equilibrium mechanism, an error correction model is put forward to reflect the error degree between long-term and short-term. The results afford a new idea for electricity demand forecast and electricity power planning.