Research On The Theories And Methods Of Consumer Credit Risk Evaluation

With the constant reform of monetary system and promotion of income level of residents in our country, great change has taken place in residents' level of consumption and consumption idea. Especially after joining WTO, Chinese banks open up progressively, the stock system reform of the state-run bank moves forward constantly, the competition of the Chinese banks become more and more violent, the share of common business decreases progressively of every bank, however, the consumer credit is soaring steadily. Therefore consumer credit risk management becomes an important problem that commercial bank must pay close attention to.But the present consumer credit is deposited in obvious credit insufficient phenomenon. Except the natural factor of history, outside the policies and regulations factor, consumer credit risk evaluation system still remains to improve.The paper discussed the theoretical foundation that the consumer credit produced at first, including inter temporal consumption model, family life cycle hypothesis and information asymmetry theory, as the foundation for analysis of origin cause of formation of risk, evaluation of risk of consumer credit and theory of evading of the consumer credit. Secondly, two kinds of methods suitable for evaluation of risk of the consumer credit: Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and Cased-Based Reasoning are introduced. These two kinds of methods both have one's own limitation, but as for consumer credit risk evaluation, it is two kinds of comparatively suitable methods. Thirdly, as for consumer credit risk evaluation, the paper analyzes individual credit assess, grant the loan assess and classification of consumer credit and interpret in depth from the choice of index and the foundation of evaluation system. Then makes the empirical research with Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process and put forward the approaches to evade the risk of consumer credit.