| Making prophase evaluation of hydropower project investment risks is of much importance because of the huge economic loss caused by the negative effects of the risk factors. Being a very important phase of the lifecycle of the hydropower project, the feasibility of the project, the basis of project investment, is to comprehensively analyze and demonstrate technology economy before the decision-making of the investment, and scientifically forecast and assess the economic benefits after the accomplishment of the project. In this paper, the investment risk of hydropower project feasibility research is studied based on the theories of systems engineering, probability, and simulation technique. The content studied and conclusions drawn are as follows:1. The general flow of risk and project risk management is briefly stated, and the research actuality of risks analysis concerning hydropower project investment and benefits is reviewed in detail.2. Combining the characteristics of investment risks of hydropower project, the risk factors of hydropower project are analyzed and the hydropower project dynamic risk management system is established according to the procedure of WBS and RBS described.3. The structure of hydropower project investment and benefits is analysed. Two indices, payoff capability index and compensate capability index, are used; components of cash flow of hydropower project investment and finance evaluation are presented to research the influence of investment risk variables of hydropower project. A discussion about the decision of simulation count is made. The simulation technic which combines hydropower project investment risk and finance index provides basis for scientific decision-making.4. WBS is applied in a hydropower station of the Southwest of China to distinguish the risk factors of the station with expert experience. The evaluation of project investment risk and indices is made to provide basis for feasibility research of the project. |
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