Uncertain Decision-Making Analysis Under Principal-Agent

Principal-agent theory came from very long, and researcher in domestic and foreign has done a lot of research. The main research in this area is concentrated in the question how to design effective inspire contract for evade the agent problem, and how to apply the principal-agent contract to the actual principal-agent mechanism. The decision-making came from very long, and from beginning of the human being society all kinds of decision-making behavior has appeared. However, it is no longer than 100 years for decision-making become a real science. The research scopes in decision-making theory in domestic and foreign is primary concentrated in the combination, decomposing and applying the method, procedure, guide line, circumstance, object etc.However, viewing the theory about principal-agent and decision-making, the research in uncertainty decision-making under principal-agent connection is very few. The main reason about that is their development is in separately, and they have no influence each other. Different from the self development of the theory, in real world we often see these phenomena that agent always makes a lot of decision-making which damage the advantage of the principal when he makes uncertainty decision-making in many reasons. Furthermore, almost of these phenomenon can be avoided.So, it is important and serious that the thesis research on the uncertainty decision-making under the principal-agent relationship, and expect to find reasonable solve way.A qualitative analysis and a quantitative analysis being used in this thesis, in the beginning, the author analyses the reason arising from the principal-agent problem and the limitation and growing of the principal-agent problem, then points out the basis of the existent of the internal uncertainty and external uncertainty, and their relationship. Then, test the uncertainty decision-making difference between existence of the principal-agent and inexistence of the principal-agent by designing the decision-making questionnaire. Those discrepancy lie in 1) the objectives of the decision-makers are different; 2) the payoff function of the decision-makers are different; 3) the ways of information existence are difference, etc. In the following, basing on the different risk preference between the principal and agent, this thesis design different principal-agent contracts, and research the corresponding uncertainty decision-making under those contracts.Then, contrast the discrepancy in them, and analyze the reasons that arise of the discrepancy, and bring forward corresponding relatively reasonable solving ways, including hard limits such as enlarge punish coefficient, clear information publicize etc. and soft limits such as improving the character of the agent.