Prediction And Optimization Of Electric Market Quote Project

The electric market is one of the important projects in the reform of the modem electrical system. With "power plants separated form electrical network, power plants competing electric price", and the electric power market gradually being built-up, it is still a new field that an independent power corporation how to make use of market rules to arrange its own generating scheme in order to achieve maximum economic benefits , which has the significance both in theory and practice.This thesis studies the quote project and optimization of power plant basing following two programs: the National Natural Science Foundation of China (KDD and data mining research in thermal equipment real-time database) with the serial number 50376011, power plant quoting price decision taken charge by Nanjing Automation Co., Ltd and The Department of Power Engineering of southeast university.The main contents, method and innovation are as follows:1. This thesis analyzes electric power market bargain rule, monthly quote market, and day quote market of East China according to east china electric power market rule.2. Being a part research of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, this thesis comparison and improve the prediction method and model of the artificial network and artificial fuzzy network. The result of imitating shows that the improved artificial fuzzy network can acquire an accurate and stable estimate result.3. For the accuracy both of prediction-data and prediction-trend ,this thesis built up the combination average model of great sample (7-day history data) prediction and small sample (3- day history data) prediction on the foundation of imitating test. This improved the estimate accuracy of the SMP availably.4. This thesis summarized the change regulation of the profits curve with system marginal price; built up the mathematical model of unit stop and run; designed the rule of build sample based on unit stop and run; improved genetic algorithm; Put forward the optimize algorithm according to the whole day highest profit target on the base of the system marginal price. Imitate experiment expresses this method can find out the superior solution quickly, and have a good stability and the astringency.5. Basing on the foundation of SMP prediction and project optimization, and according to the east china rules, this thesis born day quote project (according to the single price segment expanded to ten price segment). Programmed tool is utilized to develop day quote assistance decision system in the thesis. In addition, we introduce the main interface and the operation method of this software.Combining with east china electric power market rules, this thesis carry on a research on SMP forecast, SMP process, project optimize, quote project boring. On the other side the thesis can serve as the essential and firm basis of further theoretical research about resolving the actual problems of independently plant, and I hope this thesis provide a help for further theories and practice researching.