Evaluation And Decision-Making Of Bidding Project In Electricity Market Supported By Forecast

Thesis with national natural science fund《The Thermodynamic Energy Equipments The Knowledge Study and The Excavation Calculate Way Research in The Solid Hour Data》(serial number 50376011) and the cooperation item "Generator Bidding System(GBS8000)" for background, around our country electric power market reform bottom, power plant enterprise how to choose the superior bidding strategy to evade the risk and to gain more profit.The main contents, the application method and creative result of the full text show as follows:1. Be one part of the national natural science fund research, this paper improved gray an estimate model, and apply in SMP forecast. The predict result indicate that improvement empress of gray estimate model can satisfy to generate electricity in bidding bargain of solid hour quickly applied. And the estimate result more accurate credibility.2. According to power plant enterprise is few to get the information, adoption the grey forecast model to the system limit give or get SMP carry on an estimate application. Analyzed to compare GM(1, 1) and GM(1, N) the characteristics of two kinds of estimate models and applied result, verify to the improvement of the model accuracy with residule correction, put forward the application of the further improvement problem in the electric power market. And according to the forecast value, carry out a method of making random batch quantity bidding projects.3. Analyzed the income form and cost in the generation enterprise, building up the income valuation system of the bidding.Take the tiny view economics principle as to guide, analyzed traditional accounting costs not overall,the real results differ of weakness, and adopt economic costs of analytical method, thorough study generate electricity a business enterprise to be engaged in all cost in the electricity quantity production line, difference from circulated the cost and capacity cost both side to analyze the limit trend of cost, build up any time stalk up the analytical method of true dynamic state cost, got a different type time,different burden rate to descend the machine set to generate electricity cost variety regulation. Combined to tally up the generator set a difference on these grounds to circulate the cost and the biggest profits index sign in the least under of the superior burden value.4. Inquiried in to generation enterprise to carry on the risk type and the processing method that produces bargain in detail. Lay equal stress on to order analytical the medium mark of the offer project risk, put forward a kind of new amount of risk to turn the valuation method, make use of to the history data all the rate statistics and to current the market predict the accuracy zone analysis, to offer project of medium mark the risk do a generous character.