China Netcom (group) Company Anshan Subsidiary Company Local Telephone Analysis Forecast

Since 2005, the Anshan branch of China Netcom Group has begun to deal with the billing of local call every week, instead of the former traditional pattern. And after October, 2005, it was promoted to all towns in succession. It has been proved that this kind of analysis and statistic work is charactered with concise, rapid and efficient, which can provide necessary information to managers, reinforce the business development quality, improve the economic returns, grasp the track of market in advance, and get the market trend in the end. In a word, it help Anshan branch of CNC become more competitive.At present, there are not related theory and mature experience about this way of analysis and forecasting. In this case, this paper forecasts the call minutes according to the former weeks'data, using the linear regression analysis in addition to successive approximation. And then it builds a model to calculate the call revenue and the total revenue of the same month. After two years'practice and improvement, this model has been relatively mature, and well accepted by managers.This paper mainly introduces the implementation of local call's analysis and statistics, including the scope and working process. The analysis of every week local call is based on the descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. And the research also includes feasibility demonstration, model's building and the analysis of differences combining with two examples.The traditional billing begins at the end of each month, and the data collection, together with the handing in of revenue statements usually begins at 5th, next month. This paper gets a conclusion of this pattern after a primary exploration.The analysis of local call is carried on every week. Then the reckoning is based on the treated data, using the linear regression method. And the achievement of the call minutes prediction should be approached successively after the synthesis of several reckonings. The results prove that this method can basically meet our needs. And what's more, it is feasible in theory.And another problem is to predict revenue. In this paper, model is built to solve this matter. Detailed introduce and three parameters are given in this paper.There must be some differences during the prediction of call minutes and revenue. The differences are discussed in theory and explained through practical examples. From the two years practices, the differences can be accepted to some extent, and meet the requirement of production operation.During the prediction of local call minutes, several influent phenomena are found. Some of them are direct, and easy to be understood. And some of them could be discovered only after thorough analysis. All of these phenomena take effect through some rules. Mangers could establish effective marketing strategies to improve our company's competitive ability, instead of price war. It can get twice the result with half the effort. In this paper, an individual chapter is made to introduce the method.This prediction method which is charactered with concise, rapid and efficient can be used in many fields, such as Product Planning Centre, Marketing Department, VIP Centre and some like.At present, Anshan branch of CNC is carrying on the project of nation-wide intelligent solution. After this project, the Liaoning provincial company will achieve data online collection everyday. And then we could apply the analysis of revenue and call minutes in long distance call, phs, short messages and so on. There are more and more data, fields and unknowns waiting for us to explore.