The Investigation Of The New Product Potential Revenue In The Product Life Cycle

Predicting the new product market potential supplies the data for the new product R&D decision-making, advances the precision of the decision. The predicting result of the new product potential revenue promotes the resources distributing of the new product budget, supports the data for the new product controlling system and is the foundation of the new product programming, producing and vendition. In a general way, the ability of sale can be analyzed according to the past prosecuting and the comparing to the other similar produces. But to the new product, there are not enough data in the marketing, the new functions and the new characters can not be substituted, it necessary to explore a new technique to predicting the new product potential. The paper built up a mathematic model to calculate the new product potential revenue in different conditions.(1) Beginning with the important Bass model, discuss it becoming to, developing and applying. Deeply understands the Bass model, the range of supplying and the hypothesis conditions.(2) Then, take the abstract product as the research object, witch opens up the Bass model extension. More important, it opens out the essence of the product life cycle, the process of innovation——diffusion——re-innovation. The new viewpoint breaks the realism product bondage, makes the product life cycle more representative, integrality and abandons the otherness and undisciplinarian of the realism product life cycle.(3) The new product potential revenue shows the change of product market range, witch is decided by the innovation and diffusion. With building of mathematics model, get the numerical value of new product potential revenue in the product life cycle.(4) Base on the actual product form in the market, discuses three types new product revenue distributing—no-repeating purchasing, period-repeating purchasing and random-repeating purchasing. At the no-repeating purchasing, the new product potential revenue is degression, there is a stabilization scheduled time between the two point of slope been -1. At period-repeating purchasing, the new product potential revenue is infinite and emanative. Random-repeating purchasing between the no-repeating purchasing and period-repeating purchasing is also degression and constringency 0 when substituted product coming to be.