The Study On Optimum Population In Jiangsu Province For Sustainable Development

Regional sustainable development means a evolution process in a complex administrative system which includes sub systems such as population, resources, environment, society, economy etc. This process may lead to a more balanced, harmonious, mutual supplementary state through the guidance of a series of concrete practices. Population occupies an important status and plays a crucial role in regional sustainable development. We think although population is not the central issue of regional sustainable development, it is fundamental for regional sustainable development. A fine population status is a necessary but not sufficient condition for regional sustainable development. In theory, there exists an optimum population condition for regional sustainable development in a concrete space region and time period. This optimum population refers to the appropriateness of population essences that is consistent with development rules of population. These essences are population numbers, quality, structure and distribution. The optimum population condition also benefits the realization of the regional sustainable development target. This requires the population essences be harmonious with relate regional resources, environment, society, development of economy. Therefore we conclude the optimum population condition is a necessary prerequisite and basic condition for regional sustainable development.Based on the theory of regional sustainable development and corresponding necessary population condition, we construct RPSD system (the system of Regional Population and Sustainable Development). We analyze the structure level and the major function of this system and all sub-systems. We also analyze the mechanisms produced by the major population essences and these mechanisms are either positive or negative for regional sustainable development. Then, this paper establishes a system for Jiangsu population and sustainable development covering four sub-systems: economy, society, population and resources and environment. We also construct a comprehensive index system valuing for Jiangsu sustainable development to analyze quantitatively the population condition in Jiangsu sustainable development. We transfer the figures in this index system (in 1996,1998 and 2001~2003) into dimensionless numbers, determine the corresponding weight for these pure numbers by the way of AHP, and therefore obtain the final comprehensive grade for the sustainable development for each year in Jiangsu province. Finally, under certain assumptions, we take related population numbers as variables varying in rational regions and using some tools in Excel Software, we gained the optimum population values for maximizing the comprehensive grade of the sustainable...