Feasibility Study Of Neighbourhood Centre Project In Tianjin Airport Logistics Processing Area

The Neighborhood Center Project in Tianjin Airport Logistics Processing Area is to integrate the scattered, small-scale shops of traditional commercial facilities in residential areas, and become a one-stop business district that includes community shopping, leisure, entertainment and dining. The Neighborhood Centre project adopted the horizontal-integrating chain business model, so that the neighborhood can form a business district that has unified business brand and management. At the same time, due to the interaction with consumers, business opportunities can be vertically integrated.Feasibility study has very important significance in ensuring the completion, operation, investment recovery, and achieving economic and social benefits of the project. In this paper, the Neighborhood Center Project in Tianjin Airport Logistics Processing Area is the object for study. By using theory and practice research methods, the feasibility study is made from the technical, economic, environmental, social, and risk aspects.Due to the large investment, long construction period, long investment recovery period, this article focuses on the project risk analysis. Based on the analysis of the composition of project investment and return, we first made an identification and analysis of project risk factors. However, in practice projects are often affected by many random factors, which has impacts on the project but is constantly changing, thus it is very difficult to systematically analyze these factors. Monte Carlo method is to make a simulation of the project investment process using a lager quantity of randomly selected numbers according to the distribution of variable and obtain corresponding simulation results, and then by calculating the statistical value of these results, we can obtain the statistical characteristics of the related economic values, and finally have a clearer estimate of the project risks. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used to assess the project's cost risk, financial risk, schedule risk, and from the analysis results obtained, the project in general has a high ability to resist risks and to achieve the expected investment returns.