The Risk Analysis And Preventive Strategies Under JinRongHua Of The Oil Market

As the oil market and financial market of closely combining,the fusion of oil andfinancial gradually become the trend of The Times. Two industries promote and support eachother,also can cause risk sharing between the two markets.In this situation,because of thefaultiness in our country's financial market, what we do is just only to accept the price that theInternation has already made, including the risks. To fit for the collection of oil and financialmarket better, develop the effecto of the financial, We choose varies of risks in the marketbetween oil and financial market for our study, by analyzing the relationship between thefluctuate of the crude oil future price and other markets. we should make an analysis of therisks and take effective measures to avoid it.We use Value-at-Risk to calculate the risks in varies of markets, and the Grangercausality test and Co-integration test to demonstrate the relationship between dollar index,interest rate and crude oil future price.Based on setting up these models,the article has an conclusion: there are three types ofrisks in the oil financial market,these are: speculative risk, exchange rate risk and interest risk.To some extent, the factor of the speculating plays role in the wave of the crude oil futureprice. The dollar index is the unidirectional Granger cause of the oil price, but there arebidirectional Granger cause between interest rate and oil future price,and the oil price doesmore influence to interest rate. And, in the period of the October,2008 to January,2009,therisks all show the highest value, and they all have a big wave.