Analysis Of Adjusting Regional Industrial Development Strategy Basing On The Water Environmental Carrying Capacity

In recent years, water environment in China is not satisfactory, on which the impact of industrial development can not be ignored. How to scientifically make the industry development planning with the economic benefit and the water quality combined is the main problem to be solved in this thesis. The thesis, focusing on the coordination of the regional industry development and water environment carrying capacity, in accordance with the principle to optimize industry structure and promote the industry developed harmoniously with environment, following the line of evaluation, forecast and regulation, builds a technologic method framework to analysis the coordination between the key industries'further development and the water environment protection. The thesis is to find a coordination mechanism for the regional industrial development and water environmental protection, to provide basis for decision making of the industry rational development planning.Firstly, the research is separated into two parts, regional industry development and water environment carrying capacity. Based on the economic models and scenario analysis, the recognition method and evaluation system of the current situation and the basic measures of the further development prediction for the key industry are identified. By defining the overload factor, the index and method to evaluate water environment carrying capacity status can be achieved. Combining these two parts, the potential impact of regional key industries'development on water environment can be identified. Then, with the total output value of the key industries maximized to be the objective function and both the industry development and the water environment carrying capacity to be the constraint condition, a linear program model is built to assess the different scenarios of industrial development under the constrain of water environment carrying capacity. Finally, comparing different industry regulation results of different scenarios, the countermeasures and suggestions for the industry development regulation is provided.The method has been applied to make solutions in 13 coastal cities in the Bohai Rim Area. With year 2007 being the basic year, 7 industries, including metal, petroleum, equipment, food, textile, paper and chemical, are selected as key industries. The current feature of these key industries is systematically evaluated and the development both in the mid-2015 and the long-term 2020 are predicted. Aiming at maximizing the output value of the key industries of the area in 2020 without exceeding water environmental carrying capacity, three scenarios with different constraints have been discussed. Basing on it, the key industries'regulation in 2020 is achieved. The results show that, in order to ensure water quality, the key industries'further development in Bohai Rim Area should cut down paper industry in Tangshan and Weifang and chemical industry in Binhai New Area, Weifang and Panjin, and control food industry in Panjin, Binhai New Area and Qin Huangdao. Meanwhile, the environmental management principles to"rule the old and control the new"should be followed. The coordination of carrying capacity and industry development at provincial level should be promoted as well.