A Study On The Contagious Paths Of International Financial Crisis On China's Real Economic

Since the 1990s, financial crisis happened frequently in emerging markets, their common characteristic is the obvious contagious. On April 2, 2007, Subprime Mortgage Crisis broke out with the beginning of the bankruptcy of New Century Financial Corporation in the United States. Then it gradually evolved into the U.S. Financial Crisis. With the diffusion of the U.S. Financial Crisis, Lehman Brothers Holdings encountered bankruptcy in September, 2008, that is the mark of the International Financial Crisis's outbreak.At present, the theory about infection mechanism of financial crisis has been more studied and is mature. But the background, reasons and infectious process of each financial crisis was different, the role of each infection channel in the infectious process of each financial crisis was also different. Different from previous financial crisis, this International Financial Crisis came from American, such a developed country, its effect on global real economy was more obvious and further. The real economy of China also suffered a serious concussion. Based on the existing theory about infection mechanism of financial crisis, this paper discusses about the contagious path of the international financial crisis contagion to China's real economy, in order to recognize the weak point and the existing problems of China's economy , then provide ideas that how to take appropriate measures to promote our economy to step onto the sustainable development road.First of all, this paper builds the theoretical framework of the contagious path that international financial crisis impacting on China's real economy. It is the theoretical basis of this thesis. "Contagion "is defined in this thesis as the significant impact effect on China's real economy because of the International Financial Crisis through the real economy and the financial market. Economy is divided into real economy and financial market, so the contagious path is divided into two parts: the directly contagious path through real economy and the indirect contagious path through financial market. In addition, the indirect contagious path includes two stages: the contagion from international financial market to Chinese financial market and that from Chinese financial market to the real economy of china. The real economy mainly make relationship through trade and FDI, thus explaining principally the real economy contagious path by analyzing the trade infection mechanism and FDI infection mechanism; Financial markets make relationship mainly through intermediary (bank) and capital market, so this paper mainly analyzes the infection mechanism of bank channel and infection mechanism of capital market channel; Explaining the influence mechanism that Chinese financial market impacts China's real economy from the view of financial market function.Secondly, inspecting the existence of contagion that the International Financial Crisis transferred to China's real economy through the real economy path and the financial market path. Inspecting the existence of contagion that the International Financial Crisis transferred to China's real economy through the real economy path by collecting and contrasting the relevant index data, that is to inspect the existence of contagion through trade infect mechanism and FDI infect mechanism; Using the method of VAR system to inspect the existence of multinational infection that come from the international financial market to china's financial market. Inspecting the existence of contagion on China's real economy that come from China's financial market by comparing the change of some related index, such as deposit-loan ratio of financial institutions, he Shanghai A-stock index, consumer confidence index and entrepreneurs confidence index .Again, empirically analysis the contagious path that international financial crisis to China's real economy. Constructing the SVAR model, using the quantitative method of variance decomposition , work out the ratio that all sorts of contagious channel contributing to China's real economy, then get the conclusion that : trade infection channel and the credit channel are the main channel that international financial crisis affect China's real economy by the real economy .Finally, according to the empirical conclusion, find the weak point and main problem that existing in the development of China's economy, then puts forward the corresponding proposal.