The Research Of Chinese International Short-term Capital In The Context Of Financial Crisis

Since 2002 the international short-term capital kept pouring into china, financial and economic developments are affected to various degree. A big International short-term capital inflow makes a greater deviation value between nominal and real exchange rate. Although the securities market and the housing market present a picture of prosperity, it has affected financial stability and the liabilities of banks; meanwhile, their own monetary policy has been influenced too.The acceleration of International short-term capital flows takes the country at a disadvantage at a disadvantage and courses many cases of financial crisis. In 1989, America savings and loans crunched. In 1992, European savings fell in confusion. In 1994, Mexico's currency devalued, Japanese bank was on the brink of bankruptcy in 1995, several banks in East Asia countries went into bankruptcy in 1997. These phenomena were all related to Big International short-term capital inflows. The mad chase of high profits results in an increasing effect on economic development Illegal recessive channels. What's the role of short-term capital for this subprime crisis in the USA? what will short-term capital happen before and after Financial Crisis? These are all practical questions.This paper gives a research on the effect factors by the net amount and total amount of international short-term capital. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are induced as follows:First, Measurement on the actual and the optimal total amount of short-term capital inflowsThis paper analyzes the hidden and illegal channels of short-term capital inflows into China, estimates the amount for each channel,estimates the amount for each channel, and gives the total amount from 2001-2009.With the scale model of the best short-term capital inflows,this paper compares and analyzes the actual the optimal total amount of short-term capital inflows of 2001-2009.By comparing the analysis, we find that in recent years the deviation value between them has increased year by year.So it is necessary to focus on short-term capital inflow channels. Analysis and troubleshoot import and export exchange settlement, strengthen the clampdown on capital inflow and the government supervision on personal foreign dealing, so that the scale short-term capital inflows can be reduced.Secondly, this paper makes an empirical analysis of effect factors on short-term capital in the context of the Financial Crisis.This empirical study explores the related effect factors using the time series data from January 2007 to December 2009 in our country, then establishes the model of the effect factors of international short-term capital.Thirdly, international short-term capital inflows make a hard blow to China finance.In the preceding chapters, we know that no matter if Financial Crisis happens or not, international short-term capital has a great effect on China finances. Innovation point is that choose interest rates lag period spread 0,1,2,3,4,5 to establish cointegration model, get the most close to real interest rates spread influence international short-term capital situation is lag period for 3.Using the standard deviation represent the fluctuating range of international short-term capital, This empirical study explores the impact on China finance brought from international short-term capital by researching government control, the exchange market and interest rates market, stock market, real estate market and banking regulation.Fourthly,discussing methods of absorbing foreign investment and resist to international short-term capital inflows based on analysis above.Regarding to the preceding research, we make some relevant strategies and approaches by studying macroeconomic policies, interest rates and exchange rates, foreign direct investment and capital controls, foreign exchange and so on.Through this study, the author hopes help government and financial institutions find proper monitoring o and rational control of short-term capital, so that foreign capital can serve our own financial and economic development well.