The Empirical Analysis Of The Global Imported Inflation

With the economic globalization speeding up, international trade activities increasing frequently, global inflation through the transmission of international trade path and international monetary path drive the price rise, causing inflation appears imported feature obviously day by day. Especially since financial crisis broke up in 2008, nations have taken unprecedented liquidity injection plan, making the global financial system avoid the collapsing at the same time, also appearing liquidity inflation problems, international commodity price rises considerably, global imported inflation risk is becoming obviously day by day. Rational knowledge current input sex inflation reason and transmission mechanism for management of inflation, can provide certain policy basis. Therefore, it has great theoretical value and practical significance to reflect on how to treat the reason of imported inflation and international transmission factors rationally and deal correctly with inflation.This article analysis the imported inflation systematically from theory to practice, qualitative and quantitative. First the concept, type and standard of the inflation are defined; then introduce the trade path and currency path of the imported inflation in the open economy; and then analysis the heterogeneity and main factors of the imported inflation of the world entity in the "high inflation" and "low inflation" system, building the panel data of six countries (China, United States, Japan, Britain, Germany, France) Markov switching regime model. The empirical analysis indicate that in the environment of global economic integration, the imported inflation of each country has obviously imported characteristics, but the inflation of each country has the characteristics of heterogeneity and asymmetry because of the difference of economic and political institutions. In the "high inflation" system, the currency exchange rate path is more notable. In the "high inflation" system, the exchange rate rises and the domestic currency devalues that incurs inflation; and in the "low inflation" system, the input inflation of the devaluation of domestic currency is not significant. In the two systems, the foreign exchange reserves have the role of restrain the inflation; The international oil and other raw material input cost-push inflation. In the two systems, there is long-term positive relationship between the import and CPI, but there is significantly non-symmetry. In the "low country snouia estab(?)sn ana improve a (?)oating excnange rate system, improve (?)oreign exchange management system, exploit new energy, improve energy reserves system, optimize our import mix and reduce dependence on foreign market. The policies of restraining inflation must be adapted to local conditions, not blindly follow.