Study On The Measurement Of Credit Risk Identification Of The Credit Card

As the one of the intermediary business of the bank in China, although credit card business has a later approach into the financial maket, it is still one of the best profitable products in the major commercial banks of China.According to McKinsey,the credit card market in China will be an exponential growth, and by 2013 profits will increase into 1.3 billions or 1.4 billions,which make the credit card business become the core and main profit source of the commercial banks. With the whole development of the financial field in China, by the joint and cooperative means, many foreign banks reached this area, and the competition of the domestic credit card business intensified. Meanwhile,the risks from the credit card business become more and more important.The proposal draft of Basel III make a regulation,which rules the capital provision method.In a word,credit card risk management is more and more given an attention,and the research of the default rate of the credit card becomes imperative. To research the problem of the credit card default probability, this paper builds a integrated model by means of kinds of credit card techniques.The content of this paper mainly includes five parts. First, this paper systematically introduces the theory of the credit card and the risk of the credit card. In addition, it describes the present situation of the development of the credit card and its cost and profit. Second,this paper introduces the Basel.As the guide document of a global banks,Basel III rules a capital provision method for the retail business,such as credit card, and it puts forward the method of IRB.This paper systematically introduces how to calculate the PD and LGD.Third,this paper introduces credit scoring techniques, which is useful for the model of the credit card default probability. Fourth, according to score card* neural network model and Logistic regression model, we can bulid the integrated model,which is a better defaut rate model of the credit card. Fifth,In order to build an integrated Logistic regression models, bycollecting the basic information on 15 group of customers data, and using the Eviews software,ultimatelythis paper gives a conclusion that which isthe main factors and model of the 15 customer's credit card default rates. The integrated model is useful for the commercial banksto establish the management system of credit card defaultswhich can monitor and prevent default. And it can provide the theoretical basis of credit card defaults.