Empirical Study Of Prediction About Transfer Of Control In Our Country

The transfer of control will often give the target companies shareholders abnormal returns and the difficult to obtain extra yield is to identify and predict the target companies,meanwhile which is the key to get the excess earnings for investors.About the control transfer prediction research,the literature has been confined to evaluation of the accuracy of prediction model,and the effect on the model of market testing should be further inspected.Because this point could be further corroborated the significance of prediction model for investors. Based on the domestic and foreign classical theories,and in combined with the present situation of our country,this paper proposed that the transfer of control's seven basic assumptions,selected thirty indicators from finance and equity attributes,and tested the significance between the year of 2008 samples of target group and non-target group by the way of ANOVA for identifying features of target companies.After which can be helpful to establish logit linear regression model.As matter of fact,the accuracy of backward test and the predictive test are as high as 82.5% and 69.5%,indicating the model prediction result is great. To further test the predictive model whether it's meaningful for investors,which means assessing whether portfolio can gain the abnormal returns,this paper tried to construct portfolio with same weigh by the samples of the target companies predicted.The study found such a phenomenon that is the portfolio can get the abnormal returns at least ten months within twelve months,following all annual report of companies released.However the abnormal returns may likely lies in the shell resources of target companies and the higher risk from the target companies shareholders assumed.