| In recent years, the financial takes place frequently, and its consequences for the whole world economy has exerted profound influence. In the past, because of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered global financial crisis not only affects the financial sector, the impact to economic entity also abnormal severity. Based on financial crisis brought serious consequences and far-reaching influence, people tried to use models to predict the financial crisis began in the earliest Blanco and Garber (1986) and Edin and Vredin (1993), they build model in the use of in-sample data obtained good prediction effect, but it needs a series of assumptions, make model does not have to predict the universal applicability of financial crisis. Next to the financial crisis early-warning system research has acquired some achievements, but the crisis of predicting process often to use several index, which causes prediction of the process is complicated and the work of collecting data is also heavy, the final prediction effect is not satisfactoryTherefore, in today of the subprime crisis has not been disappeared , for financial crisis research again become the focus in all countries economists. Financial crisis early-warning system is a critic method for prediction of the financial crisis, and variable selection is tectonic warning model of the key. Therefore, the choice of rational economic variables as early warning system for the index of financial crises in effective forecast has the important practical significance. Based on the data obtained from 1997 countries, have chosen the representative macroeconomic different sides of 11 economic indicators, using multiple variable system diagnostic technique Mahalanobis-Taguchi system, in conditions of keeping warning levels, effectively reduce the number of forecasting index, this to improve the financial crisis early-warning model predictions level and reduce the cost of early data collection. |
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