Research On The Financial Position And Transfer About The Listed Companies

Under the influence of the global financial crisis tri ggered by subprime lending crisis in2007,many enterprises including some large financial giants were in trouble ,even bankruptcy.Interms of macroscopic,this financial crisis indicates credit crisis.In terms of micro,the basis of thecrisis is excessive debt and less cash liqudity.But any changes of financial position are to be agradual and deteriorating process.Therefore, according to relevant information to determine thefinancial situation and judge the next issue of the financial situation are essential for investors andcreditors,government institutions,managers and shareholders,and with direct manipulation andpractical significance.The listed company's financial situation were divided into two categories by manyscholars,such as financial distress and financial normal.It is too simple to reflect the realityaccurately.On the basis of past research,the listed company's financial situation are divided into fivecategories in the paper which is the bankruptcy,financial distress,financial equilibrium,the full andfinancial standing idle.In the paper,the changes of company's financial situation are as the markovprocess whoes time and status is discrete and then the further study on the problem of financialtransfer is continul.The sample composed of machinery manufacturing listed companies in2004-2009 from the A stock market of Shanghai and Shenzhen is chosed for empiricalresearch.Then,the paper choses asset-liability ratio,liquidity ratio ,cash flow debt ratio and operatingmargins, and uses scoring to judge the company's financial position.On the basic of the judgment offinancial position,the paper studis the changing characteristics of situation transfer in 2004-2009 tomake up one year period of transfer probability matrix of financial situation.The matrix is fifthcolumns and is as the basic of predictiong financial position.By empirical research, the conclusions are as follows:Firstly,our listed companies'financial situation is generally poor.Therefore,investors shouldkeep high vigilance and analyse its financial situation carefully .It is believed that "there is risk,investment should be cautious"; Supervisory level should strengthen the monitoring and should besubject to rigorous checking the condition of the refinancing schem against the force of therefinancing.Investment banks should pay more attention to development of this kind company toexplore potential service clients effectively.Secondly,the results of the financial position's transfer indicate,in addition to the transferprobability of financial position which is related to bankruptcy,the probability of the diagonal is thelargest and the sider,the smaller..At the same time, the probability of financial position jumping into lower levels is larger.Therefore,even now it is in a relatively high level,the relevant members shouldincrease their vigilance.Thirdly,the financial situation jumps from one situation to another.In the paper,the probabilityjumping directly into the full situation next year when an company's financial situation is infinancial distress this year is 15.86%.This break the hypothesis of continuity transfer of financialsituation.