| After China's reform and opening up three decades, the RMB exchange rate adjustment for all to see. In the first three years of China's exchange rate formation mechanism reform, the RMB exchange rate appreciation did not cause serious impact on the current account, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserves and economic growth. By the U.S. Subprime Mortgage Crisis in 2008 caused by the worsening global economic situation, the context of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate trend has slowed, weakened relative to the impact of macroeconomic developments. However, this does not prove that there is no appreciation of the effect of the negative effects on the domestic economy, the lag effect will be expected. Thus, the research of the impact of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate on the effects of China's future economic growth mode and the direction of macro regulation and control has important theoretical and practical basis.On the basis of the open system of macroeconomic theory and exchange rate trends, the paper describes the development of China's exchange rate and exchange rate system in China. Based on the above analysis, the paper takes the capital element and no offset interest rate parity theory to the open economy Mundell - Flemming (referred to as M-F) model framework, establishes the exchange rate, interest rates, import and export, income, prices and stock prices based on variables such as the relationship between the macro and the transmission mechanism of general equilibrium paradigm. Then it takes the use of the structural vector auto-regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition of econometric methods, to analysis the macroeconomic effects of exchange rate fluctuations and short-term dynamic long-term empirical research after the 2005 reform of the RMB exchange rate system. Research shows that in the assumptions of the endogenous interest rate and exogenous money supply, by the exchange rate, import, export, income, prices and stock prices constituted an open economy M-F model, the general Equilibrium model has a unique solution. When the macro is running to the store time, commodity, currency, trade, stock markets have reached equilibrium. Appreciation of the exchange rate movements will directly or indirectly related to the import and export, price, income and stock price changes. In the open process of China's economy, to meet internal and external macro-economic equilibrium, exchange rate system to maintain a basic balance of international payments plays a crucial role. Although China is currently implementing a basket of currencies of a managed floating exchange rate regime, exchange rate fluctuations still affect the conduct of monetary policy. Overall, the analysis of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations and empirical research, will provide the basis for the reform of RMB exchange rate system in the future, but also the development of China's macroeconomic impact of exchange rate fluctuations and response measures for reference.In addition to introduction, the article is divided into four parts.The second chapter in the country of China according to endogenous and exogenous money supply, interest rates, establishment of special institutional arrangement based on the open economy M-F model of general equilibrium theory, and appreciation of the RMB against the possible positive and negative on the macro-economy gives this comprehensive analysis of the impact. Concluded that: in the condition of a slight appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, other endogenous variables in the transmission mechanism under the premise of general equilibrium economic systems exists of a corresponding qualitative structural framework, while the economic system with automatic adjustment mechanism to be via the impact of exogenous variables Interaction between endogenous variables and feedback to reach a stable equilibrium outcome.The third part discusses the development trend of the RMB exchange rate changes and exchange rate regime, while take the descriptive analysis of China's macroeconomic environment. This chapter introduces the changes of RMB exchange rate system, generally through three major stages; second review overall trend of the RMB against the U.S. dollar's was obvious appreciate, that at different speeds in different periods reflects the appreciation of the economic characteristics of the stage; Finally, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations The status quo on the macroeconomic development may cause negative effects. Chapter IV of exchange rate fluctuations on the Empirical Analysis of China's economy, through the theoretical model of the previous chapter as a guide in establishing the structure vector autoregressive (SVAR) model based on the estimated exchange rate fluctuations on the impact of other economic variables, mainly for the RMB exchange rate Appreciation of the domestic price level will lead to decline and reduce output in the short term no significant effect on the import and export, but play a modified role in the long term, increase the asset bubble.Chapter V deal with the current appreciation of the RMB exchange rate policy advice, combined with the actual situation of China's economy to the model estimation results as the basis for China's RMB exchange rate fluctuations and macro-economic adjustments to exchange rate fluctuation in the corresponding policy recommendations put forward: appreciation of the RMB exchange rate should be as an opportunity to promote the capital money can speed up the foreign exchange market to complete the optimization of economic structure.This innovative main features: First, consider China a particular interest rate and exchange rate institutional arrangements, building commodity markets, money markets, foreign markets and capital markets, joint decision model; Second, lengthening the sample period of macroeconomic time series; Third, using structural vector since the regression model in-depth analysis of the economic mechanisms behind the empirical results. This article mainly for lack of the points such as: the reasonability of the empirical research method of multivariate multi-equation is controversial, while the mature Western theory may not meet the exchange rate of the fact that the Chinese economy, which is still not complete. |
