Research On The International Short-term Capital Inflow Based On Trade Channels Of China

In the 1990s, the international short-term capital has played an important role during the outbreak of the financial crisis. Since from, the European Monetary System crisis in 1992, to the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, even though each crisis manifestations were different, but all of them are related with the large-scale flows of international hot money. In recent years, as the international currency believed that RMB appreciation is expected to increase, more and more international capitals pursuit of huge profits, bypassing the financial control, through hidden trade channels into our country, which had a great impact on our economy. Especially when the global financial crisis broken out in 2008, China's import and export trade both were under attacked, it made people paying more attention to the international short-term capital flow under the trade channels.The reason I started this research was caused by the thinking of the changes in total amounts of international short-term capital flows into China through trade channels. First I estimated the total amounts of it according to customs and the international balance of payments data; Secondly, After conclusion the main motivation of the international short-term capital inflow through trade channels was to arbitrage, I finishing out the international short-term capital flows under the trade channels are implemented; Thirdly, I analyzed the internal macroeconomic economic of China followed by short-term international capital from two aspects. I found that a large-scale international short-term capital inflow would influence the balance of payments overall balance, had negative impact on the domestic economy and our stock and property prices are also driven in sharp fluctuations by foreign investment and so on. In order to eliminating the negative impact on our country, we have to strengthen the supervision of international capital flows. For example, to increase exchange rate flexibility appropriately, to establish a flexible exchange rate system; Chang policy direction, to improve the detection of short-term international capital flows early warning system, to increase the transparency of inter-agency information; To enhance the authenticity of trade finance audits; And further improve the"import declaration online verification system" and "export receipt system" and so on.