Research On Modeling And Application Of Corporate Groups Brittleness Based On Complex Systems Brittleness Theory

With the development of market economy, the continuous aggravation of industry competition, the corporate groups'operating costs is increasing, and its profit space continues to shrink, thus the corporate groups faces with the competitive landscape that the strong win and the weak out. A large number of facts certificate that international disputes, economic fluctuations and other external environmental turbulence, strategic orientation bias,investment decision-making mistakes, costs out of control, product quality problem and other internal management trouble, have serious impacts on the survival and development of the corporate groups, and bring about a potential or apparent recession, or even bankruptcy in the development process of the corporate groups. Therefore, we need to strengthen the research of the corporate groups'brittleness nature, and explore the transmission and spread laws of this brittleness to make corporate groups control the risk of brittleness and achieve sustainable development in the complex environment.Based on complex systems brittleness theory, this thesis focuses on the corporate groups and analyses the brittleness factors and events and their interaction mechanism which will lead to the collapse of corporate groups.According to the theoretical assumptions, model building, statistical validation and empirical analysis, this thesis uses SPSS17.0, AMOS7.0 and other mathematical statistics tools, thus we identifies the brittleness factors for each brittleness event and their interaction mechanism. Based on the results, this thesis presents the brittleness degree formula to quantify the degree of the corporate groups'brittleness risk. At the same time, the thesis constructs the complete corporate groups' brittleness model.Using the grey system theory, this thesis makes predictive analysis on the three typical corporate groups whose brittleness is at a high level.At the meanwhile, the thesis gives corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for these three corporate groups.In the end, this thesis raises prevention-based-type model and clear-based-type model to manage and control the corporate groups' brittleness risk. Through the research, this thesis obtains the following findings and conclusions. (1)Based on the existing literature, this thesis defines the concept of corporate groups' brittleness and establishes the system of corporate groups' brittleness factor using the complex systems brittleness theory and the complex nature of corporate groups.On the basis, this thesis uses 181 A-share listed companies as evidence samples to do principal component analysis.Thus the thesis obtains seven principal components which are composed by brittleness factors, and then derives seven brittleness events of the corporate groups.Based on the results, this thesis figures out the brittleness degree formula, which can quantify the probability of the corporate groups'brittleness risk.(2)This thesis constructs the hypothesis system of the relationship between seven corporate groups' brittleness events and does an empirical analysis on their transmission mechanism using structural equation modeling approach. Then, this thesis solves out the coefficient map of pathways between brittleness events and identifies the critical brittleness transmission line in the corporate groups'interior. Then this thesis establishes the model of the corporate groups'brittleness including both internal and external environmental factors, which reveals the transmission laws that from the fluctuations of factors to the conduction of brittleness events and then the spread between the various subsystems and finally the collapse of the entire system.(3)According to the brittleness degree formula, this thesis calculates the 181 corporate groups'brittleness value, and divides them into four grades:high-risk, medium risk, general-risk and low-risk. Using grey system approach, this thesis establishes the corporate groups' brittleness risk prediction model.Three typical corporate groups from different sectors:Shenzhen Konka, HTC shares and JAC which have high degree of brittleness are selected. Then, this thesis predicts their brittleness degree of the year 2009-2015,and makes early warnings of risks combined with the specific development of the corporate groups situation. Finally, according to the law of the brittleness'conduction within corporate groups,this thesis raises prevention-based-type model and clear-based-type model to manage and control the corporate groups' brittleness risk, in order to provide theoretical risk guidance from the perspective of process management.